Governo começa sem “Lua de Mel”

Rápida análise da consultoria política Eurasia que circulou hoje:

Political risks will shorten Rousseff’s honeymoon period. All signs point to a very difficult year ahead for the president, and we expect her approval ratings to decline steadily over the coming months. To begin, the president will no longer benefit from the boost in popularity that presidents typically enjoy during a campaign, particularly in a context of slow growth and softening of the labor market.

Moreover, the middle class – a majority of which voted for Rousseff with the expectation she would improve public services – will rapidly realize that their priorities do not align with the president’s. Discontent will grow as the administration shores up fiscal accounts by raising taxes and administered prices, rather than bowing to popular demands for more spending in areas like health, transportation, and education.

Apart from lower approval ratings, Rousseff will also face a more fractured congress and diminished support among her ruling coalition, which raises the risks that legislative battles will stymie her reform agenda, notably a tax overhaul. Finally, developing risks outside the president’s control may very well characterize the year ahead. These include an ongoing investigation into corruption in Petrobras, a drought-induced power crisis, and an unfavorable global environment as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy and Chinese growth slows.”

E com tudo isso em jogo o ministro da fazenda convoca uma entrevista coletiva para falar que a população aprova a política econômica e o secretário executivo da fazenda já estuda medidas de incentivos para o setor automobilístico. A eleição acabou. What’s next?